Inputs: Age, Savings, and Contributions
The first step is telling the calculator about your current situation. You'll need three key numbers: your current age, how much you've saved for retirement (across all accounts — RRSP, TFSA, non-registered), and how much you're adding each year.
Don't overthink the precision. A rough estimate is fine — the calculator is designed to show you trends and probabilities, not exact dollar predictions. Being within 10% of your actual numbers is good enough.
Current Age
Your age today and your target retirement age.
Total Savings
Combined RRSP + TFSA + non-registered investments.
Annual Savings
How much you're saving per year until retirement.
Assumptions: Returns, Inflation, and Longevity
The calculator uses default assumptions that you can adjust. The main ones are investment return (typically 5–7% nominal), inflation rate (2–3%), and how long you need the money to last (age 90–95).
Our Monte Carlo simulator runs thousands of random scenarios using historical return distributions rather than a single "average" return. This gives you a probability of success — like "85% chance your money lasts to age 95" — rather than a single number.
Outputs: Projected Income and Success Likelihood
The key output is your success rate — the percentage of scenarios where your money lasts until your target age. Generally, 80%+ is considered a solid plan. Below 70%, you probably need to adjust something (save more, retire later, or spend less).
You'll also see a projected income range showing the best-case, worst-case, and median outcomes. The spread between these tells you how much uncertainty exists in your plan.
When This Calculator Is Most Useful
The simulator is most valuable when you're within 10–15 years of retirement and have a meaningful savings base. It helps you answer specific questions like:
- Can I retire at 60 instead of 65?
- What if I save an extra $500/month for the next 5 years?
- How much can I spend per year in retirement?
- What happens if we get a 2008-style crash in my first year of retirement?
Example Scenarios
Scenario A: You're 55, have $600k saved, and contribute $15k per year. You want to retire at 62. The simulator might show a 72% success rate to age 92 — which means there's a real risk of running short. Adding 2 more working years bumps it to 88%.
Scenario B: You're 63, have $1.2M, and plan to retire next year with $50k/year spending. Success rate: 94%. You're in great shape and could probably afford a slightly higher lifestyle budget.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is a retirement calculator?
No calculator can predict the future, but a Monte Carlo simulator gives you a probability range based on thousands of possible scenarios. Think of it as a stress test, not a crystal ball. It's most useful for comparing options (retire at 60 vs 65) rather than predicting exact dollar amounts.
What return rate should I use?
A balanced portfolio has historically returned 5–7% nominal (before inflation). Our simulator uses historical distributions rather than a single rate, which gives more realistic results. Start with the defaults and adjust based on your asset mix.
Does the calculator include CPP and OAS?
Yes. You can input your expected CPP and OAS amounts and start ages. The simulator includes them as income streams that reduce the draw on your personal savings.
SimRetire Editorial Team
Independent retirement education publisher
SimRetire publishes general Canadian retirement education using dated government sources, stated assumptions, and worked examples. We are not a financial-planning, accounting, legal, tax, or medical practice, and our material is not a substitute for personal professional advice.